Written by: Kevin Berge
Hey, they may not have any black actors being honored, but at least Chris Rock is hosting. So that's something, right? (Image courtesy of: etonline.com)
I rarely watch award shows. Three hours of celebrity jokes and speeches can be grating while it is easy to just look up afterward who won what. That's not even mentioning how much value should be put behind each award. The Golden Globes for example make a big spectacle out of awards that are exactly well accredited.
The Academy Awards though are a part of my childhood. It was the only award show I grew up watching, and it always was the best way to get a decent view of the best under-the-radar movies from the past year. The most prestigious film award show despite some criticism, it's hard to deny the impact of an Academy Award win for a film.
Lately, the real criticism of the Academy is that the voters are largely losing their touch on what makes a good film in the modern era. Blockbuster films often get passed over while certain tropes in dramas can get average films too much recognition. This is not even mentioning the recent race debates over black actors getting recognition.
Still, even though I now am much more aware of all of the movies coming out in a year and have better chances to seeing them ahead of time, I pay heavy attention to the Academy Awards for the films they nominate and recognize.
This year, I have seen almost every single film being recognized by the Academy which allows me to talk heavily about the movies that should be winners and which I expect to win. Along the way, looking at the categories and potential winners, maybe I'll be able to give you a better idea of what films you still need to check out from last year.
The Academy Awards though are a part of my childhood. It was the only award show I grew up watching, and it always was the best way to get a decent view of the best under-the-radar movies from the past year. The most prestigious film award show despite some criticism, it's hard to deny the impact of an Academy Award win for a film.
Lately, the real criticism of the Academy is that the voters are largely losing their touch on what makes a good film in the modern era. Blockbuster films often get passed over while certain tropes in dramas can get average films too much recognition. This is not even mentioning the recent race debates over black actors getting recognition.
Still, even though I now am much more aware of all of the movies coming out in a year and have better chances to seeing them ahead of time, I pay heavy attention to the Academy Awards for the films they nominate and recognize.
This year, I have seen almost every single film being recognized by the Academy which allows me to talk heavily about the movies that should be winners and which I expect to win. Along the way, looking at the categories and potential winners, maybe I'll be able to give you a better idea of what films you still need to check out from last year.
***For each category, there will three considerations: "who will win" (based on past trends with Academy voters), "who should win" (my personal opinion), and "dark horse" (a potential upset pick over the favorites). For some, I will include a "snub" category but only if I can specifically state who deserves to be on the ballot, why they deserve to be there, and who they would replace.***
DISCLAIMER: no actors were actually physically harmed or molested by bears in the course of making this film though I'm not sure Leo would have said no if it was to get in character. (Image courtesy of: dailymail.co.uk)
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario.
Who Will Win: The Revenant - This category has gone to the same man for the past two years, and it would be a shock if it didn't go to him for the third straight year. Emmanuel Lubezki was the man that made Gravity and Birdman such cinematic marvels to watch though each of those had a bit of a gimmick behind them.
With Gravity, the movie was the pinnacle (so far) of making the viewer feel like they were actually in space. With Birdman, the entire film was filmed and cleverly edited in a way that made it look like one consistent tracking shot. The main gimmick for The Revenant was the use of natural lighting to make nature feel vibrant behind the camera.
The film was the year's most beautifully shot film regardless of how intense the story and acting were. With Lubezki's constant praise from the Academy (he also has five nominations beyond his two wins), it would be shocking to see him not get the statue again this year.
Who Should Win: The Revenant - I mainly wanted to include this category to praise the cinematography of Emmanuel Lubezki. It takes a special kind of cinematographer to win two back-to-back Academy Awards for Cinematography, and it takes an even more special one to improve on his work each time.
If you've seen Children of Men and The Tree of Life, you'll know he always brings an extra edge to the way he captures a shot, but he's been working a while to find the right directors to work with that could let him make a purely engrossing movie. Alejandro González Iñárritu seems like the perfect blend with Lubezki.
The Revenant is one of the most beautiful films I've ever seen. While I've spent many nights camping in the wild, I don't know that I've ever seen nature as beautiful as it was captured on screen in the film. While Lubezki has a tendency to overwhelm with how much he can pack in a shot, this is his best work yet.
Dark Horse: Sicario - If there is any cinematographer who could challenge Lubezki's work, it's Roger Deakins who, while he's never won the award, has been nominated 13 times by the Academy. It is telling that Sicario is only nominated for one award, and it's cinematography. While the action film is not the Academy's cup of tea, they couldn't ignore Deakins' exceptional work.
In fact, the main thing that has been holding back Deakins lately has been the films he's filming. He's been behind the lens for many blockbusters and higher action films than the Academy typically likes to recognize which hurts him. Still, he's at the top of his game right now.
Eventually, the Academy has to recognize one of the best cinematographers currently working though it probably won't be this year.
Who Will Win: The Revenant - This category has gone to the same man for the past two years, and it would be a shock if it didn't go to him for the third straight year. Emmanuel Lubezki was the man that made Gravity and Birdman such cinematic marvels to watch though each of those had a bit of a gimmick behind them.
With Gravity, the movie was the pinnacle (so far) of making the viewer feel like they were actually in space. With Birdman, the entire film was filmed and cleverly edited in a way that made it look like one consistent tracking shot. The main gimmick for The Revenant was the use of natural lighting to make nature feel vibrant behind the camera.
The film was the year's most beautifully shot film regardless of how intense the story and acting were. With Lubezki's constant praise from the Academy (he also has five nominations beyond his two wins), it would be shocking to see him not get the statue again this year.
Who Should Win: The Revenant - I mainly wanted to include this category to praise the cinematography of Emmanuel Lubezki. It takes a special kind of cinematographer to win two back-to-back Academy Awards for Cinematography, and it takes an even more special one to improve on his work each time.
If you've seen Children of Men and The Tree of Life, you'll know he always brings an extra edge to the way he captures a shot, but he's been working a while to find the right directors to work with that could let him make a purely engrossing movie. Alejandro González Iñárritu seems like the perfect blend with Lubezki.
The Revenant is one of the most beautiful films I've ever seen. While I've spent many nights camping in the wild, I don't know that I've ever seen nature as beautiful as it was captured on screen in the film. While Lubezki has a tendency to overwhelm with how much he can pack in a shot, this is his best work yet.
Dark Horse: Sicario - If there is any cinematographer who could challenge Lubezki's work, it's Roger Deakins who, while he's never won the award, has been nominated 13 times by the Academy. It is telling that Sicario is only nominated for one award, and it's cinematography. While the action film is not the Academy's cup of tea, they couldn't ignore Deakins' exceptional work.
In fact, the main thing that has been holding back Deakins lately has been the films he's filming. He's been behind the lens for many blockbusters and higher action films than the Academy typically likes to recognize which hurts him. Still, he's at the top of his game right now.
Eventually, the Academy has to recognize one of the best cinematographers currently working though it probably won't be this year.
Inside Out: the movie where the nerdy quiet one is clearly stereotyped as the worst kind of person and it's still okay. (Image courtesy of: forbes.com)
Best Animated Film
Nominees: Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Was There.
Who Will Win: Inside Out - Pixar has a tendency to win this award. In fact, since the award's inception in 2001, 10 of the company's 13 films have been nominated for the award, and 7 of those have taken the win. However, it has been very recently that Pixar's films have started getting less recognition.
This is mainly though because of a drop in quality for Pixar films who once were simply the only company creating intelligent animated films for young audiences. This year, that quality drop does not apply though as Inside Out is as close to classic Pixar as we've seen in the past five years.
The film about a girl moving to a new town told through the inner workings of her own mind is creative, exciting, funny, and easy watching for all ages. While the rest of the animated films list are quality, they cannot stand up to the larger scale of Inside Out or the Pixar name. This film even got a best screenplay nom which makes it a huge favorite.
Who Should Win: Inside Out - I love Pixar films. Despite being "kid's films", they get better on rewatching and have a lot of honesty to the way they are written. While Inside Out doesn't quite measure up to some of my favorites (Wall-E, The Incredibles, the Toy Story franchise), it is still just as poignant as its predecessors.
After years of average entries by Pixar from Brave to the recent The Good Dinosaur (I don't even want to mention Cars 2), it was refreshing to have old school Pixar again. Both Joy and Bing Bong are among Pixar's best written characters and really captured a sweet and smart story.
While Pixar doesn't need the recognition and has taken a win recently in this category by reputation alone, Inside Out deserves the win for just how good it is.
Dark Horse: Anomalisa - It is a struggle to find any film awards in which Inside Out didn't win for Best Animated Film, but there are a small few. The unique adult animated film Anomalisa defeated Inside Out at both the Los Angeles and San Diego Film Critic Association Awards, and there's reason to believe it could win the big one.
There has never really been an animated film like Anomalisa. This Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Adaptation) film is about an older man finding a reason to no longer be bored with the world. It's a rated-R animated film with a far more complicated vision than we've seen in the past from animated films.
Giving credit to someone other than Pixar for making a truly unique and captivating animated film could be a great moment for the Academy Awards though most have agreed that Inside Out is a simply better film and less out there.
Who Will Win: Inside Out - Pixar has a tendency to win this award. In fact, since the award's inception in 2001, 10 of the company's 13 films have been nominated for the award, and 7 of those have taken the win. However, it has been very recently that Pixar's films have started getting less recognition.
This is mainly though because of a drop in quality for Pixar films who once were simply the only company creating intelligent animated films for young audiences. This year, that quality drop does not apply though as Inside Out is as close to classic Pixar as we've seen in the past five years.
The film about a girl moving to a new town told through the inner workings of her own mind is creative, exciting, funny, and easy watching for all ages. While the rest of the animated films list are quality, they cannot stand up to the larger scale of Inside Out or the Pixar name. This film even got a best screenplay nom which makes it a huge favorite.
Who Should Win: Inside Out - I love Pixar films. Despite being "kid's films", they get better on rewatching and have a lot of honesty to the way they are written. While Inside Out doesn't quite measure up to some of my favorites (Wall-E, The Incredibles, the Toy Story franchise), it is still just as poignant as its predecessors.
After years of average entries by Pixar from Brave to the recent The Good Dinosaur (I don't even want to mention Cars 2), it was refreshing to have old school Pixar again. Both Joy and Bing Bong are among Pixar's best written characters and really captured a sweet and smart story.
While Pixar doesn't need the recognition and has taken a win recently in this category by reputation alone, Inside Out deserves the win for just how good it is.
Dark Horse: Anomalisa - It is a struggle to find any film awards in which Inside Out didn't win for Best Animated Film, but there are a small few. The unique adult animated film Anomalisa defeated Inside Out at both the Los Angeles and San Diego Film Critic Association Awards, and there's reason to believe it could win the big one.
There has never really been an animated film like Anomalisa. This Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Adaptation) film is about an older man finding a reason to no longer be bored with the world. It's a rated-R animated film with a far more complicated vision than we've seen in the past from animated films.
Giving credit to someone other than Pixar for making a truly unique and captivating animated film could be a great moment for the Academy Awards though most have agreed that Inside Out is a simply better film and less out there.
It's pretty amazing when you can write a script where all the biggest actors agree to play bit roles instead of star. Wait, that's a good thing, right? (Image courtesy of: youtube.com)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room.
Who Will Win: The Big Short - This list is a very competitive group of films that could easily just go to whatever film is considered best by the Academy voters. Given that The Big Short is the only film on this list with a major Best Picture win under its belt with a win at the Critic's Choice Film Awards.
The screenplay itself has pulled in a few major wins as well with a lot of recognition to Adam McKay taking a very complicated book and making it funny, effective, and emotional in all the right ways. This is also helped by McKay being known as a comedic writer and director primarily, so he could get a boost for such a great dramatic outing.
It is not easy to do what McKay did with this film and come out the other side with such a great film, but any of these movies could steal it especially if a movie on this list besides The Big Short is the one set to win Best Picture.
Who Should Win: The Big Short - I want to give some credit to each of these scripts, but The Big Short is a special achievement of a script. I hated economics in school even as a student who was a decent mathematician. There were so many nuances to the math of economics that made it hard to easily grasp.
McKay clearly had a lot of love for the book he was adapting as he managed to not only adapt it well to screen but made it easy to understand. With some slight of hand and clever ploys along the way, the script of The Big Short is a real marvel. I went into this film disliking economics, and I came out having enjoyed every second.
I will personally give a shout out to The Martian as well though as it does a similar juggling act, using a source material heavy on science and making it intense, funny, and consistently understandable without losing the intelligence of the original novel.
Dark Horse: The Martian - Drew Goddard shouldn't exactly be an unknown name as a screenwriter due to his work on a variety of very successful TV shows (Buffy The Vampire Slayer/Angel, Daredevil) and films (Cloverfield, World War Z). The Martian though was his chance to make a huge mark, and he delivered.
Working with the successful novel by Andy Weir which is extremely intelligent science fiction, Goddard made the book a universal blockbuster success with a script that brims with a variety of surprising emotions. While sci-fi and blockbuster are taboo words to the Academy for the most part, it's hard to deny how well written The Martian is.
Snub: Steve Jobs - While this group is absolutely stacked, I am still shocked that Steve Jobs got snubbed in this category. In fact, if it were nominated, it would be my pick to win. Smart, intelligent, and perfectly crafted, Aaron Sorkin crafts a special script that does not play up to the legend of its subject matter.
This script has won Sorkin a ton of recognition including a Golden Globe and deserves the spot over Nick Hornby for Brooklyn and Phyllis Nagy for Carol which are likely getting the recognition for being better films overall given that Steve Jobs has been a bit underrepresented in general at film awards.
Who Will Win: The Big Short - This list is a very competitive group of films that could easily just go to whatever film is considered best by the Academy voters. Given that The Big Short is the only film on this list with a major Best Picture win under its belt with a win at the Critic's Choice Film Awards.
The screenplay itself has pulled in a few major wins as well with a lot of recognition to Adam McKay taking a very complicated book and making it funny, effective, and emotional in all the right ways. This is also helped by McKay being known as a comedic writer and director primarily, so he could get a boost for such a great dramatic outing.
It is not easy to do what McKay did with this film and come out the other side with such a great film, but any of these movies could steal it especially if a movie on this list besides The Big Short is the one set to win Best Picture.
Who Should Win: The Big Short - I want to give some credit to each of these scripts, but The Big Short is a special achievement of a script. I hated economics in school even as a student who was a decent mathematician. There were so many nuances to the math of economics that made it hard to easily grasp.
McKay clearly had a lot of love for the book he was adapting as he managed to not only adapt it well to screen but made it easy to understand. With some slight of hand and clever ploys along the way, the script of The Big Short is a real marvel. I went into this film disliking economics, and I came out having enjoyed every second.
I will personally give a shout out to The Martian as well though as it does a similar juggling act, using a source material heavy on science and making it intense, funny, and consistently understandable without losing the intelligence of the original novel.
Dark Horse: The Martian - Drew Goddard shouldn't exactly be an unknown name as a screenwriter due to his work on a variety of very successful TV shows (Buffy The Vampire Slayer/Angel, Daredevil) and films (Cloverfield, World War Z). The Martian though was his chance to make a huge mark, and he delivered.
Working with the successful novel by Andy Weir which is extremely intelligent science fiction, Goddard made the book a universal blockbuster success with a script that brims with a variety of surprising emotions. While sci-fi and blockbuster are taboo words to the Academy for the most part, it's hard to deny how well written The Martian is.
Snub: Steve Jobs - While this group is absolutely stacked, I am still shocked that Steve Jobs got snubbed in this category. In fact, if it were nominated, it would be my pick to win. Smart, intelligent, and perfectly crafted, Aaron Sorkin crafts a special script that does not play up to the legend of its subject matter.
This script has won Sorkin a ton of recognition including a Golden Globe and deserves the spot over Nick Hornby for Brooklyn and Phyllis Nagy for Carol which are likely getting the recognition for being better films overall given that Steve Jobs has been a bit underrepresented in general at film awards.
This poster manages to mix up the order of people they feature with their names just to see if you can tell which one Liev Schreiber is. (Image courtesy of: youtube.com)
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton.
Who Will Win: Spotlight - There are only two Best Picture nominated films on this list which makes this a less competitive category. In fact, it almost makes it entirely one sided. Spotlight was the early favorite for the Best Picture win, and Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy's work on the script is a large reason why it's so well received.
Working with an ensemble of great actors while focused on a touchy subject that could easily be dull to follow, this is easily the best script about journalism written in a very long time. The screenplay has won most awards in which it was nominated including being recognized by the Writers Guild of America.
While Ex Machina, Inside Out, and Straight Outta Compton are good films, they feel like nominations for pure recognition with no chance to winning. It should come down to which film is better received by the Academy between Spotlight and Bridge of Spies with Spotlight being the likely favorite.
Who Should Win: Spotlight - I'll be talking about Spotlight more later, but, to start off the conversation, this is easily one of the best films of the year. It deserves at least a few awards along the way from the Academy even if it doesn't take Best Picture, and this is the easiest win possible.
It can be very difficult to make a film like this work. There are a lot of voices in the mix that only get so much time to deliver the complete picture of the film. A lesser script would have made this whole film decidedly dull, but instead it's engaging, dramatic, and frustrating in the best way.
Dark Horse: Bridge of Spies - It may not seem like it watching the film, but the Coen Brothers worked alongside Matt Charman to write the script for Bridge of Spies which means the film certainly had big names behind its writing. The film is also helped by being obvious Academy bait in its patriotism commentary.
In many ways, this film should be the favorite for a number of awards with how much talent is involved with it, but the film's problem is that it feels decidedly average in the long run. While a strong film, it is not good enough to outpace the far more unique and memorable Spotlight.
Who Will Win: Spotlight - There are only two Best Picture nominated films on this list which makes this a less competitive category. In fact, it almost makes it entirely one sided. Spotlight was the early favorite for the Best Picture win, and Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy's work on the script is a large reason why it's so well received.
Working with an ensemble of great actors while focused on a touchy subject that could easily be dull to follow, this is easily the best script about journalism written in a very long time. The screenplay has won most awards in which it was nominated including being recognized by the Writers Guild of America.
While Ex Machina, Inside Out, and Straight Outta Compton are good films, they feel like nominations for pure recognition with no chance to winning. It should come down to which film is better received by the Academy between Spotlight and Bridge of Spies with Spotlight being the likely favorite.
Who Should Win: Spotlight - I'll be talking about Spotlight more later, but, to start off the conversation, this is easily one of the best films of the year. It deserves at least a few awards along the way from the Academy even if it doesn't take Best Picture, and this is the easiest win possible.
It can be very difficult to make a film like this work. There are a lot of voices in the mix that only get so much time to deliver the complete picture of the film. A lesser script would have made this whole film decidedly dull, but instead it's engaging, dramatic, and frustrating in the best way.
Dark Horse: Bridge of Spies - It may not seem like it watching the film, but the Coen Brothers worked alongside Matt Charman to write the script for Bridge of Spies which means the film certainly had big names behind its writing. The film is also helped by being obvious Academy bait in its patriotism commentary.
In many ways, this film should be the favorite for a number of awards with how much talent is involved with it, but the film's problem is that it feels decidedly average in the long run. While a strong film, it is not good enough to outpace the far more unique and memorable Spotlight.
No, Eddie, you cannot win a Best Actress award this year to compliment your Best Actor award from last year, just by playing a woman. (Image courtesy of: telegraph.co.uk)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara, Carol; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs.
Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl - The only thing that has been holding Alicia Vikander from sweeping the awards shows for her performance in The Danish Girl as a wife watching her husband disappear is the question of whether she should be recognized as the lead actress or supporting.
While I would personally say she's one of the film's two leads, I am glad she is getting supporting acting nominations as it allows her to actually take well deserved wins rather than being the likely runner up to Brie Larson in Room.
This group is quite stacked to be fair with Kate Winslet and Rooney Mara also deserving recognition for their work this year, but there is something about Vikander's captivating performance that has won her every supporting acting award she's been nominated for this year.
Who Should Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl - This really shouldn't be a surprise. I recently wrote about my top 10 favorite acting performances of 2015, and Vikander was on the list twice including taking number one for this heartwrenching performance.
I could wax lyrical about how emotional the performance was and how it is somewhat underrated by a decidedly average film that Vikander carries with some help from Eddie Redmayne as the clear lead, but I have done so already. I would be extremely disappointed if Vikander didn't take the win this year.
Dark Horse: Rooney Mara, Carol - While Kate Winslet has the second most supporting actress awards to her name, Rooney Mara has been struggling to get proper recognition for her role in Carol as well, leaving her in the lead actress category as well. When she has been competing without Larson or Vikander in her category, Mara has easily won.
While Vikander's role as lead or supporting is questionable, it is hard to believe that Mara is being considered the supporting actress in Carol. While Cate Blanchett plays the title character, Rooney Mara has perhaps even more screen time and lines than Blanchett in the film.
In a similar way to The Danish Girl, Mara and Blanchett carry Carol even if it is very well made, and Mara's performance is the movie's beating heart which has lead to her getting much recognition if not enough.
Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl - The only thing that has been holding Alicia Vikander from sweeping the awards shows for her performance in The Danish Girl as a wife watching her husband disappear is the question of whether she should be recognized as the lead actress or supporting.
While I would personally say she's one of the film's two leads, I am glad she is getting supporting acting nominations as it allows her to actually take well deserved wins rather than being the likely runner up to Brie Larson in Room.
This group is quite stacked to be fair with Kate Winslet and Rooney Mara also deserving recognition for their work this year, but there is something about Vikander's captivating performance that has won her every supporting acting award she's been nominated for this year.
Who Should Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl - This really shouldn't be a surprise. I recently wrote about my top 10 favorite acting performances of 2015, and Vikander was on the list twice including taking number one for this heartwrenching performance.
I could wax lyrical about how emotional the performance was and how it is somewhat underrated by a decidedly average film that Vikander carries with some help from Eddie Redmayne as the clear lead, but I have done so already. I would be extremely disappointed if Vikander didn't take the win this year.
Dark Horse: Rooney Mara, Carol - While Kate Winslet has the second most supporting actress awards to her name, Rooney Mara has been struggling to get proper recognition for her role in Carol as well, leaving her in the lead actress category as well. When she has been competing without Larson or Vikander in her category, Mara has easily won.
While Vikander's role as lead or supporting is questionable, it is hard to believe that Mara is being considered the supporting actress in Carol. While Cate Blanchett plays the title character, Rooney Mara has perhaps even more screen time and lines than Blanchett in the film.
In a similar way to The Danish Girl, Mara and Blanchett carry Carol even if it is very well made, and Mara's performance is the movie's beating heart which has lead to her getting much recognition if not enough.
Stallone is an inspiration to us all; he starred in The Specialist, Stop! Or My Mom Will Shoot, and Get Carter and could still win an Academy Award in his career. (Image courtesy of: ew.com)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Christian Bale, The Big Short; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Sylvester Stallone, Creed.
Who Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed - Sylvester Stallone has never been a highly accredited actor. In fact, even as an actor star, he has been seen as more of a charismatic presence than a real quality actor. That was why it was so surprising to see Stallone in Creed where he was fantastic as a Rocky Balboa in need of a reason to live.
It is hard to say how much the Academy respects Stallone, but he has won Best Supporting Actor at both the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice already which makes him the odds on favorite in this group. If the Academy can get past the actor's somewhat underwhelming filmography, he should be the favorite.
This could be seen a bit as a career achievement award for a guy who has been such a gigantic action presence, bringing to life two of the biggest film characters of all time.
Who Should Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies - While I am all for Stallone having a nice career moment, I still am not sure that Stallone's performance as Rocky was the best of the year. Personally, I would give the award to a somewhat up-and-coming Mark Rylance (even though he's already over 50 with many awards to his name) for his magnetic performance as Rudolf Abel in Bridge of Spies.
Some actors raise the quality of a film through their performance, and there is no doubt that Bridge of Spies is at its best with Rylance on the screen. The experienced actor takes an ambiguous character and injects him with such quiet sympathy that you can't help but like him.
As a side note, award shows have surprisingly overlooked Tom Hardy's performance in The Revenant for the most part, so I am glad to see him nominated at least by the Academy where many other award shows have snubbed him entirely.
Dark Horse: Christian Bale, The Big Short - The only other actor on this list who has been gaining best supporting actor recognition is Christian Bale for obvious reasons. His committed performance as Dr. Michael Burry is hard not to pay attention to even though he's not in the film for much time.
The Academy is often partial to physical transformations by actors, and Bale certainly looks radically different as a man with Asperger's and an artificial left eye. It is a flashy role that would have won him most of these awards if he had more of a starring role in the film which is a complete ensemble piece.
Snub: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation - There was incredible outcry this year over the Academy not recognizing any black actors for the past two years. While there were some possible nominees snubbed, there is only one man that stands out from the pack as being directly snubbed whose nomination would have smoothed over the whole mess.
I'm not just saying Idris Elba deserved recognition because he's a black actor. In fact, it has nothing to do with that. Elba is a fantastic actor who put forth the best performance of his film career so far in the somewhat under-the-radar Beasts of No Nation.
As the charismatic Commandant, Elba captivates with a performance that won the Screens Actors Guild award over Mark Rylance and Christian Bale. Personally, I would nominate him over Mark Ruffalo even though this is a great list of candidates.
Who Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed - Sylvester Stallone has never been a highly accredited actor. In fact, even as an actor star, he has been seen as more of a charismatic presence than a real quality actor. That was why it was so surprising to see Stallone in Creed where he was fantastic as a Rocky Balboa in need of a reason to live.
It is hard to say how much the Academy respects Stallone, but he has won Best Supporting Actor at both the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice already which makes him the odds on favorite in this group. If the Academy can get past the actor's somewhat underwhelming filmography, he should be the favorite.
This could be seen a bit as a career achievement award for a guy who has been such a gigantic action presence, bringing to life two of the biggest film characters of all time.
Who Should Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies - While I am all for Stallone having a nice career moment, I still am not sure that Stallone's performance as Rocky was the best of the year. Personally, I would give the award to a somewhat up-and-coming Mark Rylance (even though he's already over 50 with many awards to his name) for his magnetic performance as Rudolf Abel in Bridge of Spies.
Some actors raise the quality of a film through their performance, and there is no doubt that Bridge of Spies is at its best with Rylance on the screen. The experienced actor takes an ambiguous character and injects him with such quiet sympathy that you can't help but like him.
As a side note, award shows have surprisingly overlooked Tom Hardy's performance in The Revenant for the most part, so I am glad to see him nominated at least by the Academy where many other award shows have snubbed him entirely.
Dark Horse: Christian Bale, The Big Short - The only other actor on this list who has been gaining best supporting actor recognition is Christian Bale for obvious reasons. His committed performance as Dr. Michael Burry is hard not to pay attention to even though he's not in the film for much time.
The Academy is often partial to physical transformations by actors, and Bale certainly looks radically different as a man with Asperger's and an artificial left eye. It is a flashy role that would have won him most of these awards if he had more of a starring role in the film which is a complete ensemble piece.
Snub: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation - There was incredible outcry this year over the Academy not recognizing any black actors for the past two years. While there were some possible nominees snubbed, there is only one man that stands out from the pack as being directly snubbed whose nomination would have smoothed over the whole mess.
I'm not just saying Idris Elba deserved recognition because he's a black actor. In fact, it has nothing to do with that. Elba is a fantastic actor who put forth the best performance of his film career so far in the somewhat under-the-radar Beasts of No Nation.
As the charismatic Commandant, Elba captivates with a performance that won the Screens Actors Guild award over Mark Rylance and Christian Bale. Personally, I would nominate him over Mark Ruffalo even though this is a great list of candidates.
It takes a special kind of director to force everyone to learn how to say the name Iñárritu. (Image courtesy of: wikipedia.org)
Best Director
Nominees: Adam McKay, The Big Short; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road; Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant; Lenny Abrahamson, Room; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight.
Who Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant - The winner of the majority of directing awards including the Directors Guild of America and the BAFTAs, this seems like a foregone conclusion which is somewhat surprising given that the group this year is extremely competitive with The Revenant not even the Best Picture favorite.
This likely comes down to how beautifully shot a film The Revenant is with the acting also fantastic. While the film's script is its weak link, that is not on Iñárritu as the director even though he had a hand in the writing of the script. He pulls committed performances out of his leads and helps create beautiful shots.
With his win last year, Iñárritu is on the radar already, and, even though The Revenant is the underdog for Best Picture, the film's direction is highly favored to get recognition.
Who Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road - Mad Max: Fury Road has a similar issue to The Revenant, the beautiful and captivating film with an underwhelming script. However, it is also hurt by its post-apocalyptic setting and blockbuster status as well.
There has never been an action film like this before. The constant motion and story within the action is magnificently shot and choreographed. While the film doesn't have a whole lot of story, it has a lot of small stories to tell in the action which is done so well with practical effects.
There may never be a film quite like this one, and it is a testament to the vision of George Miller whose, at 70 years old, did something truly original and unstoppably energetic.
Dark Horse: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight - The Academy is often known to award best director to the best movie of the year for obvious reasons, and Spotlight could very well be considered the best movie of the year by the Academy.
Tom McCarthy's ability to manage so many great talents and get so many individual quality performances is hard to ignore. Ensemble films rarely work this well (even though we have two great examples this year with Spotlight and The Big Short), and Spotlight is a movie that feels like every moment matters.
Snub: Ridley Scott, The Martian - It is hard to say who deserves to go from this list (I'd replace Lenny Abrahamson with Scott with deep respect), but Ridley Scott might have been the best director of the year. A fantastic director who shockingly only had three nominations from the Academy, this would have been a great chance for them to honor him.
The Martian was a tough film to put together. While Matt Damon's character is at the center, there is a lot of shifting between him, his crew mates, and NASA which could have led to a very jarring experience in lesser hands, and that is not even included how good looking the shots of Mars are consistently in this film.
While it would not be wholly surprising to see this science fiction film not get great winning representation from the Academy given their inclinations, it is quite odd to see Scott snubbed for his work on the Best Picture nominated film.
Who Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant - The winner of the majority of directing awards including the Directors Guild of America and the BAFTAs, this seems like a foregone conclusion which is somewhat surprising given that the group this year is extremely competitive with The Revenant not even the Best Picture favorite.
This likely comes down to how beautifully shot a film The Revenant is with the acting also fantastic. While the film's script is its weak link, that is not on Iñárritu as the director even though he had a hand in the writing of the script. He pulls committed performances out of his leads and helps create beautiful shots.
With his win last year, Iñárritu is on the radar already, and, even though The Revenant is the underdog for Best Picture, the film's direction is highly favored to get recognition.
Who Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road - Mad Max: Fury Road has a similar issue to The Revenant, the beautiful and captivating film with an underwhelming script. However, it is also hurt by its post-apocalyptic setting and blockbuster status as well.
There has never been an action film like this before. The constant motion and story within the action is magnificently shot and choreographed. While the film doesn't have a whole lot of story, it has a lot of small stories to tell in the action which is done so well with practical effects.
There may never be a film quite like this one, and it is a testament to the vision of George Miller whose, at 70 years old, did something truly original and unstoppably energetic.
Dark Horse: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight - The Academy is often known to award best director to the best movie of the year for obvious reasons, and Spotlight could very well be considered the best movie of the year by the Academy.
Tom McCarthy's ability to manage so many great talents and get so many individual quality performances is hard to ignore. Ensemble films rarely work this well (even though we have two great examples this year with Spotlight and The Big Short), and Spotlight is a movie that feels like every moment matters.
Snub: Ridley Scott, The Martian - It is hard to say who deserves to go from this list (I'd replace Lenny Abrahamson with Scott with deep respect), but Ridley Scott might have been the best director of the year. A fantastic director who shockingly only had three nominations from the Academy, this would have been a great chance for them to honor him.
The Martian was a tough film to put together. While Matt Damon's character is at the center, there is a lot of shifting between him, his crew mates, and NASA which could have led to a very jarring experience in lesser hands, and that is not even included how good looking the shots of Mars are consistently in this film.
While it would not be wholly surprising to see this science fiction film not get great winning representation from the Academy given their inclinations, it is quite odd to see Scott snubbed for his work on the Best Picture nominated film.
From Disney Channel original film to Best Actress award in only 13 years, that's got to be a record. (Image courtesy of: hollywoodreporter.com)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn.
Who Will Win: Brie Larson, Room - The leading actor categories this year feel extremely one sided, and there is a reason for that. Even though there will always be a lot of quality talent in this category, Brie Larson's performance was on a higher level to her competition.
Larson might not be the biggest name on this list, but she's been the most decorated this year by a solid margin. While her competitors have picked up awards at minor award events, Larson took the win at the BAFTAs, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes, and Screen Actor Guild Awards.
Playing a woman who was forced to adjust to life in captivity then having to reacclimate once more to the real world, Larson had a tough, high emotional struggle of a performance that is hard to look away from, and it's near impossible to think that Larson would lose here.
Who Should Win: Brie Larson, Room - Because of its relatively small theatrical release, Room is a film that has been wildly underrated which may be why Larson hasn't absolutely swept the awards this year, losing in smaller award shows. The movie is a beautifully done book adaptation that would not be close to as good without Larson in the lead role.
Her heartbroken mother on the edge of emotional collapse is eye-catching and enthralling in all the right ways. This is another performance that I was extremely high on with personal preference as it was one of the few performances this year that brought me to tears.
While I respect all the actresses in this category and enjoyed their performances, Larson had the role of a lifetime and delivered in a way perhaps no one else could have.
Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn - Without Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander in the starring category, it is difficult to see how Larson could lose. If anyone could sneak up on her though, it would Saoirse Ronan whose film Brooklyn is well represented at the Academy Awards this year with Ronan's performance being the most highly praised aspect of the film.
Ronan has two nominations from the Academy so far with a win likely to come down the line given how young she is, but her endearing work in Brooklyn is easy to praise. She just would have to somehow upset a performance by Larson that was otherworldly.
Who Will Win: Brie Larson, Room - The leading actor categories this year feel extremely one sided, and there is a reason for that. Even though there will always be a lot of quality talent in this category, Brie Larson's performance was on a higher level to her competition.
Larson might not be the biggest name on this list, but she's been the most decorated this year by a solid margin. While her competitors have picked up awards at minor award events, Larson took the win at the BAFTAs, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes, and Screen Actor Guild Awards.
Playing a woman who was forced to adjust to life in captivity then having to reacclimate once more to the real world, Larson had a tough, high emotional struggle of a performance that is hard to look away from, and it's near impossible to think that Larson would lose here.
Who Should Win: Brie Larson, Room - Because of its relatively small theatrical release, Room is a film that has been wildly underrated which may be why Larson hasn't absolutely swept the awards this year, losing in smaller award shows. The movie is a beautifully done book adaptation that would not be close to as good without Larson in the lead role.
Her heartbroken mother on the edge of emotional collapse is eye-catching and enthralling in all the right ways. This is another performance that I was extremely high on with personal preference as it was one of the few performances this year that brought me to tears.
While I respect all the actresses in this category and enjoyed their performances, Larson had the role of a lifetime and delivered in a way perhaps no one else could have.
Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn - Without Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander in the starring category, it is difficult to see how Larson could lose. If anyone could sneak up on her though, it would Saoirse Ronan whose film Brooklyn is well represented at the Academy Awards this year with Ronan's performance being the most highly praised aspect of the film.
Ronan has two nominations from the Academy so far with a win likely to come down the line given how young she is, but her endearing work in Brooklyn is easy to praise. She just would have to somehow upset a performance by Larson that was otherworldly.
It is said that Leo made this same face the night after he lost the Best Actor statue in 2014. (Image courtesy of: youtube.com)
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl.
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant - No offense to any of the nominees, but this is not a race. It's a foregone conclusion. Yes, I know that Leo's lack of an Oscar win has become a bit of a meme lately especially after shockingly losing out to Matthew McConaughey two years ago.
Still, Leo's The Revenant performance is Academy bait if I've ever seen it. The guy so completely committed to the role of a man on the verge of insanity, trying to survive, that he disappeared from the screen even with how big a star he has become. The guy supposedly went through some insane things to commit to the vicious role.
He barely speaks English, spends a lot of time seething at the mouth and making crazy eyes, yet it is never a comical performance. That takes something special, and I would bet most if not all other actors today would have fallen on their faces trying to make this role spark like it did.
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant - I was not the biggest fan of The Revenant as a film, but I was enthralled by DiCaprio in the film. He committed so heavily that it made me uncomfortable, imagining the brutality his character went through from the mauling by a very well CGI rendered bear to hiding inside the innards of a horse.
It is a ridiculous performance on so many levels, and I mean that in the best way possible. For several years, Leo has been the best actor going with pure commitment and the ability to play any role with flair and realism. Even if he wasn't the clear front runner this year, I'd be rooting for him as he deserves this win already.
In fact, it would be a shame to see Leo only take home one statue in his career, so I would hope that he keeps putting on performances like this as he very well can for the next two decades and gets a few more to put atop a poster of the ultimate meme of his failures to get the Academy's praise as of yet.
Dark Horse: Matt Damon, The Martian - I mean, when you've got a guy like DiCaprio who has lost so often despite multiple times coming into the show as the favorite, you have to at least ponder who could steal the win. Matt Damon seems like the likely star who could steal the win from Leo given his similar one man show in The Martian.
While Damon has not beaten out Leo for any major or minor awards, Damon did take the Golden Globe for "comedy" performance which allowed him to take a major win when Leo wasn't in his way. Damon is fantastic as the astronaut, trying to constantly see the bright side in a terrible situation and rarely allowing his fear to break through.
In another year, Damon would be the favorite in this category. He's just running into a speeding train with one goal.
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant - No offense to any of the nominees, but this is not a race. It's a foregone conclusion. Yes, I know that Leo's lack of an Oscar win has become a bit of a meme lately especially after shockingly losing out to Matthew McConaughey two years ago.
Still, Leo's The Revenant performance is Academy bait if I've ever seen it. The guy so completely committed to the role of a man on the verge of insanity, trying to survive, that he disappeared from the screen even with how big a star he has become. The guy supposedly went through some insane things to commit to the vicious role.
He barely speaks English, spends a lot of time seething at the mouth and making crazy eyes, yet it is never a comical performance. That takes something special, and I would bet most if not all other actors today would have fallen on their faces trying to make this role spark like it did.
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant - I was not the biggest fan of The Revenant as a film, but I was enthralled by DiCaprio in the film. He committed so heavily that it made me uncomfortable, imagining the brutality his character went through from the mauling by a very well CGI rendered bear to hiding inside the innards of a horse.
It is a ridiculous performance on so many levels, and I mean that in the best way possible. For several years, Leo has been the best actor going with pure commitment and the ability to play any role with flair and realism. Even if he wasn't the clear front runner this year, I'd be rooting for him as he deserves this win already.
In fact, it would be a shame to see Leo only take home one statue in his career, so I would hope that he keeps putting on performances like this as he very well can for the next two decades and gets a few more to put atop a poster of the ultimate meme of his failures to get the Academy's praise as of yet.
Dark Horse: Matt Damon, The Martian - I mean, when you've got a guy like DiCaprio who has lost so often despite multiple times coming into the show as the favorite, you have to at least ponder who could steal the win. Matt Damon seems like the likely star who could steal the win from Leo given his similar one man show in The Martian.
While Damon has not beaten out Leo for any major or minor awards, Damon did take the Golden Globe for "comedy" performance which allowed him to take a major win when Leo wasn't in his way. Damon is fantastic as the astronaut, trying to constantly see the bright side in a terrible situation and rarely allowing his fear to break through.
In another year, Damon would be the favorite in this category. He's just running into a speeding train with one goal.
Iñárritu's sell of The Revenant to DiCarpio was simple and effective. "Join me, Leo, and together we will take all the Academy Awards." (Image courtesy of: christianitytoday.com)
Best Picture
Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
Who Will Win: The Revenant - This is a tough category to pick. In fact, it's the most competitive category this year, a four horse race that comes down to who the Academy prefers. The Revenant is favored slightly in this category right now because of just how many nominations it gained from the Academy (the most of any film).
The Revenant also won Best Picture at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes which are big awards for any film to grab. However, other films have taken similarly big Best Picture awards, so it is very difficult to call at this point.
If Iñárritu does end up taking his expected Best Director nod, it would be a good indication of how much the Academy enjoys the survival film and lead to the big win.
Who Should Win: Spotlight - While Spotlight wouldn't be the film I would personally call my favorite of the year, it wasn't far off, and, where I enjoyed a couple films more, there was no film I appreciated more for its craft.
Spotlight has an incredible cast of actors with many putting on eyecatching performances from an unrecognizable Liev Schreiber to an angry powder keg performance from Mark Ruffalo. The direction by Tom McCarthy keeps the film moving along so well that the emotion never slacks. The writing as well is spectacular.
I noticed the time fly by as I was glued to the screen from start to finish while watching Spotlight. Everything about the film is perfectly crafted. Personally, I am shocked it is not the all out frontrunner in this race.
Dark Horse: The Big Short - In some ways, The Big Short should be the favorite in this category. The strongest indicator for the Best Picture winner in the past few years has been the winner from the Producers Guild of America which The Big Short took this year which has predicted the Academy Award winner a decade running.
This is a very unique film, filled with talented stars, but with no leading actor. That uniqueness as well as a playfully educational focus makes this a truly interesting choice for the year's best film. Looking back on the year, Adam McKay's economic film may be one of the most memorable to come out of this year.
If this film starts taking directing and writing credits galore, it could be a big sign that the film is set to take the top award from the Academy. The fourth horse in this race, Mad Max: Fury Road, is highly unlikely to win but don't count it out after its multiple wins especially at smaller award shows and the possibility the Academy wants to change its image by having a major blockbuster as their big winner.
Snub: Carol - There are a number of films that I could put in this spot mainly because I personally am shocked with Bridge of Spies' nomination in this category, but Carol is the film that seemed most likely to get the spot from the Academy and has been nominated by basically all other major film awards.
This story of two women falling in love is well written, directed, and near perfectly acted by its two leads who have incredible chemistry. Many had Carol as the top film of the year last year even though it is a rather standard film. It is just surprising to see a film so well made get snubbed with eight nomination slots available.
I also wouldn't have minded the Academy giving Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens a nod as the biggest film of the year and also an extremely well made blockbuster, but you can only have so many blockbusters awarded at the Academy Awards with The Martian and Mad Max: Fury Road taking that spot.
Who Will Win: The Revenant - This is a tough category to pick. In fact, it's the most competitive category this year, a four horse race that comes down to who the Academy prefers. The Revenant is favored slightly in this category right now because of just how many nominations it gained from the Academy (the most of any film).
The Revenant also won Best Picture at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes which are big awards for any film to grab. However, other films have taken similarly big Best Picture awards, so it is very difficult to call at this point.
If Iñárritu does end up taking his expected Best Director nod, it would be a good indication of how much the Academy enjoys the survival film and lead to the big win.
Who Should Win: Spotlight - While Spotlight wouldn't be the film I would personally call my favorite of the year, it wasn't far off, and, where I enjoyed a couple films more, there was no film I appreciated more for its craft.
Spotlight has an incredible cast of actors with many putting on eyecatching performances from an unrecognizable Liev Schreiber to an angry powder keg performance from Mark Ruffalo. The direction by Tom McCarthy keeps the film moving along so well that the emotion never slacks. The writing as well is spectacular.
I noticed the time fly by as I was glued to the screen from start to finish while watching Spotlight. Everything about the film is perfectly crafted. Personally, I am shocked it is not the all out frontrunner in this race.
Dark Horse: The Big Short - In some ways, The Big Short should be the favorite in this category. The strongest indicator for the Best Picture winner in the past few years has been the winner from the Producers Guild of America which The Big Short took this year which has predicted the Academy Award winner a decade running.
This is a very unique film, filled with talented stars, but with no leading actor. That uniqueness as well as a playfully educational focus makes this a truly interesting choice for the year's best film. Looking back on the year, Adam McKay's economic film may be one of the most memorable to come out of this year.
If this film starts taking directing and writing credits galore, it could be a big sign that the film is set to take the top award from the Academy. The fourth horse in this race, Mad Max: Fury Road, is highly unlikely to win but don't count it out after its multiple wins especially at smaller award shows and the possibility the Academy wants to change its image by having a major blockbuster as their big winner.
Snub: Carol - There are a number of films that I could put in this spot mainly because I personally am shocked with Bridge of Spies' nomination in this category, but Carol is the film that seemed most likely to get the spot from the Academy and has been nominated by basically all other major film awards.
This story of two women falling in love is well written, directed, and near perfectly acted by its two leads who have incredible chemistry. Many had Carol as the top film of the year last year even though it is a rather standard film. It is just surprising to see a film so well made get snubbed with eight nomination slots available.
I also wouldn't have minded the Academy giving Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens a nod as the biggest film of the year and also an extremely well made blockbuster, but you can only have so many blockbusters awarded at the Academy Awards with The Martian and Mad Max: Fury Road taking that spot.
Thanks for reading and please take the time to comment and let me know your thoughts. I'd love to know what you feel about the Academy Awards and what films you hope to see or expect to win big this year.
